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制高点-第6部分
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用一个数学公式表示出来。
VOICE OF MAHALANOBIS： Let YT equal national ine； CT equal consumption； and KT equal investment at time； open bracket； open bracket； one plus lambda K beta K； closed bracket； minus one； are fractions of investment allocated to industries producing capital goods； that is K sector and consumer goods at C sector； respectively。
马哈拉诺比斯的声音：令YT表示国民收入，CT表示消费，KT表示当时的投资。左括弧，加上λKβK，右括弧，减去一个，是分配到生产资本货物的行业中的投资比例；资本货物部门是K部门，而消费品部门是C部门。
NARRATOR： People believed this perfect mathematical model could be applied in a less…than…perfect world。
旁白：人们相信这个完美的数学模型能够应用于不那么完美的现实世界。
MEGHNAD DESAI： And at that time； Mahalanobis's model was hailed as one of the pioneering mathematical models for planning a mixed economy。 And that made Mahalanobis very influential。
MEGHNAD DESAI：那时候马哈拉诺比斯的模型作为为混合经济编制计划的先进模型受到尊崇，而马哈拉诺比斯也因此而非常有影响力。
NARRATOR： India became the model of economic development for newly independent nations。 Across the developing world； socialism； planning； government control； regulation； and ownership …… these became the gospel。 All over Africa； people looked to socialism to lead them out of poverty。 Across South America； governments chose state control as the way to modernize。 The apparent success of munist countries like the Soviet Union and China seemed to show the way。
旁白：印度成为新兴对立国家经济发展的典范。在发展中国家，社会主义、计划、政府控制、规章和所有权都成为真理。在整个非洲，人们都指望社会主义领导他们摆脱贫困。南非政府选择国家控制作为实现现代化的方式。共产主义国家－例如苏联和中国－取得的明显成功似乎证实了这一方式。
Chapter 11： Chicago Against The Tide ＇7：32＇
第十一章：芝加哥逆流
Onscreen title： Chicago； 1950
字幕标题：芝加哥，1950年
NARRATOR： By 1950； Hayek's market economics were so pletely out of fashion that when he sought a full…time academic job in the United States； only one university was willing to hire him。
旁白：到1950年为止，哈耶克的市场经济学已经完全不流行了，当时他正在美国谋求全职的学术工作，结果只有一个大学愿意聘用他。
SAM PELTZMAN； Professor； University of Chicago： Chicago has always been an exceptional place； out of the mainstream。 Chicago is geographically isolated。 This affects Chicago's intellectual influence in many more areas than economics。
SAM PELTZMAN，芝加哥大学教授：芝加哥一直都是一个特殊的地方，置身于主流之外。芝加哥的地理位置孤立，这影响了它在包括经济学在内的许多领域中的影响。
NARRATOR： The University of Chicago's intellectual influence would grow。 Eight professors and another 11 economists from Chicago went on to win Nobel Prizes。 Gary Becker is one of them。
旁白：芝加哥大学的学术影响将不断增强。八位教授和其他十一位来自芝加哥大学的经济学家获得了诺贝尔奖。加里？贝克尔就是其中之一。
GARY BECKER； Professor of Economics； University of Chicago： When I came as a graduate student to Chicago 1951； I was flabbergasted by how stimulating the atmosphere was。 I had been a very good student at Princeton。 My first day in Friedman's class he raised a question。 I answered。 He said； "；That's no answer； that's just rephrasing the question。"； That was the example of how blunt people were。
加里。贝克尔，芝加哥大学经济学教授：1951年我到芝加哥大学念研究生的时候，这里活跃的气氛令我大吃一惊。在普林斯顿我是一个非常好的学生。但第一次上佛里德曼的课时他提了一个问题，我回答了，他却说：“那不是答案；那仅仅是把问题改述了一下。”这个例子说明了这里的人是如何的直率。
MILTON FRIEDMAN： Nobody was very polite。 People were interested in ideas and argument and not in making sure you didn't ruffle anybody's feathers。
弗里德曼：没有人是很客气的。大家感兴趣的是思想和论据，而不是确保不惹恼别人。
ARNOLD HARBERGER； Professor Emeritus； University of Chicago： If you're sitting in a seminar room and somebody up there is saying something which if imbibed by your students who are sitting in that same room is going to lead them astray； it's up to you to call that guy right now and not later； and that； I think； is sort of the spirit that prevailed in the Chicago workshop system。 There wasn't that much fighting in the lunches。 They were pretty cordial。 （laughs）
ARNOLD HARBERGER，芝加哥大学荣誉退休教授：如果你参加讨论会时发现上面讲话的那个人讲的内容如果被参加讨论会的学生接受的话会将他们引入歧途，那你就应该叫那个家伙立刻停止，而且我想那就是芝加哥学术会议系统中普遍存在的精神。午饭时也有战斗，他们是很好的兴奋剂。（笑）
NARRATOR： Lunches at the Quadrangle Club were famous for the intensity of intellectual discussion。 And one man came to dominate those debates。
旁白：四角俱乐部的午餐因激烈的思想辩论而著名。有一个人开始主宰那些辩论。
GEORGE SHULTZ； Dean of the Chicago Graduate School of Business； 1962 … 1968： Somehow Milton managed to set the agenda of argument； and so there was a saying； "；Everybody loves to argue with Milton； particularly when he isn't there；"； because he's a good arguer。
GEORGE SHULTZ，芝加哥大学研究生商学院的院长，1962－1968年：不知为什么，米尔顿能够成功地设定讨论议程，而且还有一句谚语：“每个人都喜欢和米尔顿争论，尤其是当他不在的时候。”因为他是一个好很好的辩论者。
NARRATOR： Milton Friedman was being the most articulate spokesman for the so…called Chicago School of economics。
旁白：Milton Friedman正成为所谓的芝加哥学派最有表达能力的代表人物。
MILTON FRIEDMAN： The Chicago School meant a strong belief in minimal government and an emphasis on free market as a way to control the economy。
弗里德曼：芝加哥学派意味着对政府干预最小的坚定信仰和强调把自由市场作为控制经济的方式。
LAWRENCE SUMMERS； President； Harvard University： You know； in many ways Milton Friedman was a devil figure in my youth in our household of Keynesian economists because he seemed； with his emphasis on individualism； freedom； and markets； to be so unconcerned with fairness。
LAWRENCE SUMMERS，哈佛大学校长：你知道，我年轻时在信仰凯恩斯主义的经济学家中，Milton Friedman在很多方面都是一个恶魔，因为他强调利己主义、自由和市场，看起来是如此地不考虑公平。
NARRATOR： Liberals may have loathed the Chicago School； but Hayek felt on home ground in an intellectual atmosphere so like the Vienna of his youth。
旁白：自由主义者本来也可能厌恶芝加哥学派的，但哈耶克觉得这种学术氛围非常象他年轻时代的维也纳。
ARNOLD HARBERGER： Our vision is that the forces of the market are just that： They are forces； they are like the wind and the tides。 If you want to try to ignore them； you ignore them at your peril。 If you find a way of ordering your life which harnesses these forces to the benefit of society； that's the way to go。
ARNOLD HARBERGER：我们认为市场的力量就是那样：他们是力量：他们就像风和潮汐。如果你试图忽略它们，你就要承担风险，自负后果。如果你找到了利用这些力量为社会谋福利的方式，那就是要遵循的方式。
NARRATOR： But in Washington； Keynes was still king of the hill。 Nineteen years after he died； his face was on the cover of Time magazine。
旁白：但是凯恩斯的思想仍然在华盛顿居于统治地位。在他去世后十九年，他的脸仍然成为了《时代》杂志的封面。
SAM PELTZMAN： Keynes's influence on economics at mid…century can't be exaggerated。 The economic advice that economists gave to policymakers said the only reason you have bad economic outes is because the government's not doing enough。 It sounds almost like central planning； doesn't it？
SAM PELTZMAN：本世纪中叶凯恩斯对经济学的影响非常巨大。经济学家们给政策制定者提的建议是经济产出糟糕的唯一原因就在于政府做得不够。这听起来几乎象中央计划了，不是吗？
NARRATOR： Washington's Keynesians saw the economy not as a force of nature but a sophisticated machine to be fine…tuned by technocrats like themselves。 The Keynesian consensus was summed up when that most Ivy League of presidents； John Kennedy； received an honorary degree from Yale。
旁白：华盛顿的凯恩斯主义者不是把经济看成自然力量，而是把它看成精密的仪器，而这仪器可以由象他们自己这样的技术统治论者来调谐。约翰。肯尼迪总统在耶鲁大学接受名誉学位时的讲话概括了凯恩斯主义者的这一观点。
JOHN FITZGERALD KENNEDY； ； 1961…1963： It might be said now that I have the best of both worlds …… a Harvard education and a Yale degree。
肯尼迪，美国总统，1961－1963年：我获得了世界上最好的一切－哈佛的教育和耶鲁的学位。
NARRATOR： For JFK； Keynes had won the argument。 The battle of ideas was over。
旁白：对肯尼迪总统来说，凯恩斯赢得了这场争论。思想的的战争结束了。
JOHN FITZGERALD KENNEDY： What is at stake in our economic decisions today is not some grand warfare of rival ideology which will sweep the country with passion； but the practical management of a modern economy。 What we need is not labels and clich閟； but more basic discussion of the sophisticated and technical questions involved in keeping a great economic machinery moving ahead。
肯尼迪：真正厉害攸关的并不是满怀激情地席卷全国的敌对意识形态之间的某种重大斗争，而是对现代经济的实际管理。我们需要的不是标签，而是对使一个伟大经济不断前进所涉及到的复杂技术问题的基本讨论。
NARRATOR： Kennedy's council of economic advisors had drafted his speech along Keynesian lines。
旁白：肯尼迪的经济顾问班子根据凯恩斯的理论起草了他的讲话。
ROBERT SOLOW； Professor Emeritus； Massachusetts Institute of Technology： We thought it was a great day when Kennedy decided to give that speech at Yale and to talk about economic policy。 That speech suggested that we had won over Kennedy。 We had won the heart and mind of the president。
ROBERT SOLOW，麻省理工的荣誉退休教授：我们认为肯尼迪决定在耶鲁发表演讲谈论经济政策的那一天是伟大的一天。那次演讲暗示我们已经赢得了肯尼迪，我们赢得了这位总统的心。
NARRATOR： For what came to be known as the "；Thirty Glorious Years；"； Keynesian economics had been delivering the goods。 Europe； Japan； and America all saw high economic growth and rising standards of living。 People enjoyed a prosperity undreamed of at the end of the war。
旁白：对于著名的“光辉的三十年”来说，凯恩斯经济学贡献很大。欧洲、日本和美国都实现了经济的高速增长和生活水平的提高。人们享受着在战争结束时做梦也梦想不到的繁荣。
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Chapter 12： The Specter of Stagflation ＇6：34＇
第十二章：滞胀幽灵
Onscreen title： Austria； 1970
字幕标题：奥地利，1970年
NARRATOR： When Hayek moved back to his native Austria； he was depressed。 The success of mixed economies made his free…market theories； and Hayek himself； seem more irrelevant than ever。
旁白：哈耶克回到他的祖国奥地利的时候，他非常沮丧。混合经济的成功使他的自由市场理论，以及他自己，看起来比以往更加落后于潮流。
LAURENCE HAYEK； Hayek's Son： The world was very much a socialist world。 His ideas were not fashionable。 Nobody seemed to listen to him。 Nobody seemed to agree with him。 He was alone。
LAURENCE HAYEK，哈耶克的儿子：世界是社会主义者的世界。他的观点不时髦了。似乎没人听他的，似乎也没人同意他的观点。他是孤独的。
NARRATOR： Hayek found his ideas shunned by the academic world。
旁白：哈耶克发现学术界在故意回避他的观点。
FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK （interviewed in 1978）： Most of the departments came to dislike me； so much so that I can feel it to the present day； ＇and＇ economists very largely tend to treat me as an outsider。
哈耶克（1978年的采访）：很多部门嫌恶我；他们如此不喜欢我以至于直到今天我仍能感觉到那种厌恶。经济学家们则往往在很大程度上把我视为局外人。
NARRATOR： He was living in a provincial town and stuck in a rut。 But the outside world was beginning to change。 Skimming the newspaper in his usual restaurant； Hayek read how inflation and unemployment were rising at the same time。 There was a new word to describe it： "；stagflation。"；
旁白：他在一个地方城镇中生活，固守成规。但是外面的世界正开始发生变化。哈耶克在他常去的饭馆里浏览报纸时看到通货膨胀和失业同时上升。有一个新词用来形容这种情况，那就是“滞胀”。
Onscreen title： USA； 1971
字幕标题：USA，1971年
NARRATOR： After 30 glorious years of growth； the American economy was in trouble。
旁白：经过三十年的高速增长，美国经济陷入了困境。
GEORGE SHULTZ： The economy basically was kind of going nowhere and had inflation； which didn't seem to get cured …… kind of a malaise in the economy。
GEORGE SHULTZ：经济基本上无路可走，还有通货膨胀，这看起来是难以克服的－经济出了些问题。
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